An Integrated Machine Learning and Hierarchical Variance Decomposition Pipeline for Student Performance Prediction and Metacognitive Calibration on Multi-Signal Telemetry

arXiv:2606.28881v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Predicting student performance and characterizing metacognitive calibration are essential for personalization in intelligent tutoring systems. Prior research treats performance prediction, calibration error calculation, and variance decomposition as separate pipelines, preventing unified interpretation. I propose the Unified Behavioral Prediction and Calibration Analysis Pipeline (UBP-CAP), an integrated framework processing student pre-execution behavioral telemetry through three linked modules: (1) a LightGBM classifier with SHAP for binary cor

Source: arXiv cs.LG — read the full report at the original publisher.

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