Decomposition-Based Modular Conformal Prediction for Two-Stage Modeling

arXiv:2510.04406v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Conformal prediction offers finite-sample coverage guarantees under minimal assumptions. However, existing methods treat the entire modeling process as a black box, overlooking opportunities to exploit and understand modular structure. We introduce a conformal prediction framework for two-stage sequential models, where an upstream predictor generates intermediate representations for a downstream model. By decomposing the overall prediction residual into stage-specific components, our method enables practitioners to attribute uncertainty

Source: arXiv cs.LG — read the full report at the original publisher.

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