Dirichlet-Guided Group Forecasting for Alleviating Over-smoothing in Time Series Forecasting

arXiv:2606.10592v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Time series forecasting often suffers from over-smoothing, especially when future dynamics are multi-modal. Forecasts may follow the coarse trend of the observed future, but fail to preserve sharp changes, oscillations, turning points, and regime transitions that define plausible dynamic evolution. In this work, we revisit over-smoothing from the perspective of latent dynamical mode compression: under partial observation and single-realization supervision, multiple plausible future modes can be weakened, merged, or averaged during forecasting. Ba

Source: arXiv cs.LG — read the full report at the original publisher.

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