Empirical Characterization of Inference-Time Elicited Probability Transformations in Large Language Models

arXiv:2603.19262v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Large language models increasingly rely on inference-time procedures such as chain-of-thought reasoning, self-refinement, retrieval augmentation, and verifier-guided revision, yet the structure of elicited probability transformations under these procedures remains poorly understood. We study externally elicited probability assignments over candidate answers and observe recurring approximate log-ratio relationships: \[ \log \tilde q_t(i) = \alpha_t \left( \log q_t(i) + \log b_t(i) \right) + c_t, \] where $q_t$ and $\tilde q_t$ are pre- a

Source: arXiv cs.AI — read the full report at the original publisher.

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