arXiv:2606.28225v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Temporal link prediction is usually evaluated by predictive performance on unseen edges, but in probabilistic temporal graphs this criterion can conflate model error with irreducible uncertainty. We study this issue by characterising an inherent estimation--prediction tradeoff in binary logistic models where regimes that maximise Fisher information and improve parameter recoverability are also those with the highest entropy, making individual predictions intrinsically harder even under perfect parameter recovery. We propose a probabilistic causal
Source: arXiv cs.LG — read the full report at the original publisher.