Improving Ensemble CAPE Forecasts with a Diffusion Model Incorporating Aerosol Information

arXiv:2605.24009v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Convective available potential energy (CAPE) is an important variable for forecasting severe weather and understanding deep convection and precipitation. The latest versions of the Global Forecast System (GFS) and related Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) have exhibited a bias towards underestimating CAPE values during the summertime. We train an artificial intelligence (AI) diffusion model to improve the skill and uncertainty quantification of afternoon 6-hour lead time ensemble forecasts over the United States. Our model takes a GFS CAPE

Source: arXiv cs.LG — read the full report at the original publisher.

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