Is Capability a Liability? More Capable Language Models Make Worse Forecasts When It Matters Most

arXiv:2605.22672v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We document inverse scaling in LLMs on forecasting problems whose underlying time series exhibit superlinear growth and tail risk of regime change, a structure common in finance and epidemiology. On these tasks, more capable models produce worse distributional forecasts. The pattern appears on ForecastBench-Sim (FBSim), a contamination-free, simulated-world benchmark we release, in forecasting synthetic SIR epidemics with a matched linear control, and replicates in real-world datasets on COVID-19, measles, housing markets, and hyperinflation.

Source: arXiv cs.AI — read the full report at the original publisher.

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