Memory Scarcity, Open Models, and the Restructuring of the AI Industry, 2026-2030 -- A quantitative scenario analysis of inference economics, training-cost divergence, and infrastructure solvency

arXiv:2607.07207v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We analyze how four forces restructure the AI industry over 2026-2030: the DRAM/HBM price surge, frontier-capable open-weight models (GLM-5.2), rapid inference-efficiency gains (near-Shannon-limit KV-cache compression, lightweight local runtimes), and the entry of Meta and xAI into compute resale on fleets bought before the memory repricing. Formulating inference economics in dollars per petabyte of bandwidth delivered (\$/PB) -- model-agnostic for bandwidth-bound decode -- we show the entrant-incumbent cost gap never closes: a depreciation con

Source: arXiv cs.AI — read the full report at the original publisher.

This is a curated wire item. The Continuum Brief does not republish full third-party articles; this entry links to the original source.