arXiv:2605.27712v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Long reasoning traces need reliability estimates before final answers are known. We study prefix-conditioned eventual-success estimation, $P(y=1 \mid o_{1:t})$, using prefix-safe observations. Sequential Bayesian Belief Tracking (SBBT) calibrates observation likelihoods and recursively updates a two-state belief, providing a common tracker for scalar scores, text and self-verification markers, hidden clusters, token-pooling probes, and latent-trajectory features. Across generated open-weight traces on MATH-500, GSM8K, AIME 2025, and RIMO-N, proba
Source: arXiv cs.AI — read the full report at the original publisher.