When Do Autoregressive Sequence Models Forecast Physical Wavefields? A Controlled Study on Synthetic Seismograms

arXiv:2606.10868v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Long-horizon autoregressive forecasting of oscillatory physical signals, such as seismograms, gravitational-wave strain, and similar wavefields is limited by error accumulation: as a causal model is fed its own outputs over hundreds of steps, small per-step errors compound into phase drift that pointwise metrics fail to detect. We ask when such rollout stays stable, using synthetic three-component seismograms as a physically structured testbed and the \textsc{SeismoGPT} autoregressive forecaster as the model under study. Through controlled, intra

Source: arXiv cs.LG — read the full report at the original publisher.

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