When Do Foundation Models Pay Off? A Break-Even Analysis of Pretrained Time Series Forecasters

arXiv:2607.04919v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Deploying a time series foundation model requires GPU infrastructure, engineering overhead, and carries no guarantee of improvement over XGBoost. We provide the first systematic break-even analysis answering when this investment pays off. Across 30 benchmark datasets, we compare zero-shot and LoRA fine-tuned foundation models (Chronos, Moirai, Lag-Llama) against classical baselines (Naive, ETS, ARIMA, XGBoost) at six training set sizes from 2% to 100% of available data. Foundation models outperform classical methods at every evaluated training fr

Source: arXiv cs.LG — read the full report at the original publisher.

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