In August 2024, scholars at a Xiamen-based think tank published a paper urging Beijing to immediately establish a shadow Taiwan government on the Chinese mainland in preparation for a full takeover of the island. “It is imperative to prepare a plan for the comprehensive takeover of Taiwan after unification,” they said. The scholars were writing at a fraught moment for Beijing.Only months earlier, the anti-China Democratic Progressive Party had taken office after a third consecutive presidential election win. Unusually for a Chinese publication on such a sensitive topic, the paper made several
The paper was published after a third consecutive presidential election win by the anti-China Democratic Progressive Party in Taiwan, indicating growing frustration and a perceived need for concrete planning within Beijing's strategic circles.
This item reveals China's escalating internal preparations for a potential Taiwan takeover, moving beyond rhetoric to operational planning, which significantly raises geopolitical tensions and risks of conflict in the Indo-Pacific.
China is publicly considering and planning for the administrative aspects of occupying Taiwan, which shifts the discourse from mere threat to detailed prospective action, indicating a hardened stance and readiness for potential conflict.
- · Chinese military planners
- · Defence industries focused on expeditionary capabilities
- · Taiwanese independence movement
- · Regional stability
- · Global semiconductor supply chain
Increased sabre-rattling and military exercises by China in the Taiwan Strait, escalating regional tensions.
Accelerated defence spending and strategic alliances among Indo-Pacific nations, including Japan, South Korea, and Australia.
Deterioration of US-China relations, potentially leading to further economic decoupling and a more overt global geopolitical schism.
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