AI·Jun 3, 2026, 4:00 AM

Aligning Data-Driven Predictors with Allocation: A Decision-Focused Approach to Survival Analysis

Source: arXiv cs.LG

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Aligning Data-Driven Predictors with Allocation: A Decision-Focused Approach to Survival Analysis

arXiv:2606.02671v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Machine learning predictors have become essential tools for guiding automated decision making. However, a major misalignment persists: predictive models are typically optimized in terms of standard statistical metrics in isolation from the algorithmic tasks they inform. We highlight this incongruity in the high-stakes domain of organ allocation by demonstrating that any algorithm relying on (even highly accurate) survival predictors optimized for standard metrics -- such as the Concordance index (C-index) -- can yield arbitrarily poor outcomes wh

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