SIGNALCapital Markets·May 21, 2026, 4:00 AMSignal75Medium term

Big Tech software era is over, says top investor James Anderson

Big Tech software era is over, says top investor James Anderson

Former Baillie Gifford fund manager says spoils of AI war will flow to hardware suppliers

Why this matters
Why now

The accelerating pace of AI development and deployment is shifting value creation from pure software to the underlying compute infrastructure, a trend becoming evident as AI models mature.

Why it’s important

This perspective suggests a fundamental reallocation of capital and profit within the technology sector, impacting investment strategies and the competitive landscape for major tech players.

What changes

The focus moves from 'software eats the world' to 'hardware underpins AI', potentially diminishing the long-term dominance of traditional software business models in favor of chipmakers and hardware manufacturers.

Winners
  • · Hardware suppliers
  • · Chip manufacturers
  • · AI infrastructure providers
Losers
  • · Pure play software companies
  • · Companies with high AI training costs
  • · Traditional SaaS business models
Second-order effects
Direct

Increased investment and M&A activity in the semiconductor and specialized AI hardware sectors.

Second

A potential plateau or decline in the valuations of large, established software companies that fail to pivot towards hardware-centric AI strategies.

Third

Geopolitical competition intensifies over control and access to advanced manufacturing capabilities for AI hardware, impacting global supply chains.

Editorial confidence: 85 / 100 · Structural impact: 60 / 100
Original report

This signal links to a primary source. Continuum Brief monitors and indexes it as part of the live intelligence stream — we do not republish source content.

Read at Financial Times — Technology
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