Among some nuclear strategists, military officers, and lawmakers, a belief bordering on the canonical has taken root that the United States is on the short end of a “deterrence gap” with Russia and China. Both countries, and especially Russia, possess theater-range nuclear weapons, whose comparatively small yield is thought to lower the threshold for their use. The relative dearth of these capabilities on the American side, so the thinking goes, denies Washington the ability to answer a limited regional nuclear strike with a comparable response and thus deter such an attack in the first place.
The debate around nuclear deterrence strategy is intensifying as global geopolitical tensions rise, pushing strategists to re-evaluate existing doctrines against perceived adversarial capabilities.
This article highlights a critical debate within US strategic policy regarding the perceived 'deterrence gap' in theater-range nuclear weapons, which could influence future defense spending and strategic posture.
The discussion challenges the traditional understanding of nuclear deterrence by focusing on specific weapon classes and their role in regional conflicts, potentially leading to adjustments in US nuclear doctrine and force structure.
- · Defense contractors focused on tactical nuclear weapons
- · Nuclear strategists advocating for diversified deterrent capabilities
- · US military branches responsible for nuclear modernization
- · Advocates for arms control and nuclear disarmament
- · Traditional nuclear deterrence theorists relying solely on strategic parity
- · Countries without robust theater-range nuclear capabilities
Increased pressure to invest in or develop new classes of theater-range nuclear weapons for the US.
An accelerated nuclear arms race focused on smaller, more 'usable' nuclear weapons among major powers.
Heightened risk of regional nuclear confrontation due to lower perceived thresholds for use and increased proliferation of tactical nuclear weapons.
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Read at War on the Rocks