arXiv:2604.26634v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Norway's electricity market is heavily dominated by hydropower, but the 2021-2022 energy crisis and stronger integration with Continental Europe have fundamentally altered price formation, reducing the reliability of forecasting models calibrated on historical data. Despite the critical need for updated models, a unified benchmark evaluating feature contributions across all structurally diverse Norwegian bidding zones remains lacking. Here we present a comprehensive evaluation of one-step-ahead forecasting of the Nord Pool market across all f
The 2021-2022 energy crisis and increased integration with Continental Europe have fundamentally altered Norway's electricity price formation, necessitating updated forecasting models.
Reliable electricity price forecasting is crucial for energy market stability, investment decisions, and national energy security, particularly in a hydropower-dominated market facing structural changes.
Traditional electricity forecasting models, calibrated on historical data, are now less reliable, requiring new methodologies that account for evolving market dynamics and international grid integration.
- · AI/ML researchers
- · Energy trading firms
- · Smart grid technology providers
- · Outdated forecasting model providers
- · Energy utilities unprepared for market volatility
Improved electricity price forecasting leads to more efficient energy market operations and reduced price volatility.
This efficiency can enhance grid stability and potentially reduce energy costs for consumers and industries.
The development of robust forecasting models may inform policy for greater energy market integration across Europe, impacting energy independence and security strategies.
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