SIGNALCapital Markets·Jun 5, 2026, 12:42 PMSignal75Long term

Morgan Stanley expects SpaceX revenue to hit $3.4 trillion in 2040, WSJ reports - Reuters

Morgan Stanley expects SpaceX revenue to hit $3.4 trillion in 2040, WSJ reports Reuters

Why this matters
Why now

Morgan Stanley's updated forecast for SpaceX's long-term revenue potential highlights the accelerating commercialization and perceived economic impact of the space industry.

Why it’s important

This valuation indicates a significant re-rating of the space economy's scale and its potential to drive foundational changes across various sectors, attracting substantial capital and talent.

What changes

The perception of space, from a government-led endeavor to a commercially dominant, multi-trillion-dollar industry, is solidifying, influencing investment and strategic planning.

Winners
  • · Space launch providers
  • · Satellite constellation operators
  • · Space infrastructure developers
  • · Advanced materials and manufacturing
Losers
  • · Traditional aerospace relying solely on government contracts
  • · Industries heavily reliant on terrestrial-only infrastructure
  • · Legacy telecommunications providers
Second-order effects
Direct

Increased investment and competition in the space sector accelerate technological development and reduce costs.

Second

New space-based services and resources become economically viable, creating entirely new markets and industries.

Third

Growing reliance on space-based infrastructure leads to new geopolitical flashpoints and discussions around orbital security and sovereignty.

Editorial confidence: 90 / 100 · Structural impact: 60 / 100
Original report

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