SIGNALCapital Markets·Jun 24, 2026, 12:15 AMSignal85Medium term

Nvidia’s banned AI chips double in price on China’s black market

US crackdown on illicit exports has made it riskier, harder and more expensive to buy tech giant’s processors

Why this matters
Why now

The US has significantly tightened export controls on advanced AI chips to China, increasing the risk and difficulty of legitimate acquisition, which has naturally driven up black market prices as demand persists.

Why it’s important

This indicates the effectiveness of US export controls in limiting China's access to high-end AI compute, but also reveals China's persistent demand and the emergence of alternative acquisition channels, impacting global technology supply chains and national AI development.

What changes

The primary channel for China to obtain leading-edge AI chips is increasingly shifting to illicit markets, making legitimate access more challenging and expensive, while also creating new profit opportunities for those willing to circumvent sanctions.

Winners
  • · Black market traders
  • · Nvidia (indirectly, via heightened brand value and continued, albeit illicit, de
  • · Domestic Chinese chip manufacturers (incentive for self-sufficiency)
Losers
  • · Chinese AI developers (facing higher costs and limited supply)
  • · US government (difficulty in fully enforcing sanctions)
  • · Legitimate chip distributors
Second-order effects
Direct

The immediate effect is a significant increase in the cost of advanced AI chips in China, hindering some AI development efforts.

Second

This will accelerate China's efforts to develop indigenous AI chip technology, as dependency on illicit foreign markets is unsustainable long-term.

Third

It could lead to a bifurcated global AI hardware ecosystem, with distinct, non-interoperable supply chains emerging in the US/allies and China.

Editorial confidence: 95 / 100 · Structural impact: 70 / 100
Original report

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Read at Financial Times — Technology
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