SIGNALCapital Markets·May 20, 2026, 10:15 AMSignal75Short term

Prabowo to Tighten Controls of Indonesia’s Commodity Exports - Bloomberg.com

Prabowo to Tighten Controls of Indonesia’s Commodity Exports Bloomberg.com

Why this matters
Why now

The incoming Prabowo administration is signaling its economic policy priorities, aiming to increase domestic value addition and national control over strategic resources.

Why it’s important

This move reflects a growing global trend of resource nationalism, impacting supply chains and potentially increasing commodity prices for importers.

What changes

Indonesia, a major commodity producer, is likely to implement policies restricting raw material exports, encouraging downstream processing within the country.

Winners
  • · Indonesian commodity processing industries
  • · Indonesian state-owned enterprises
  • · Global commodity traders with local processing facilities
Losers
  • · International raw material importers
  • · Foreign companies reliant on Indonesian raw commodity exports
  • · Manufacturing sectors in countries without direct access to processed commoditie
Second-order effects
Direct

Increased domestic processing capacity and potentially higher value-added exports from Indonesia.

Second

Other commodity-rich nations may emulate Indonesia's strategy, further tightening global raw material supplies.

Third

Long-term shifts in global manufacturing footprints as companies relocate closer to processed material sources or secure alternative supplies.

Editorial confidence: 90 / 100 · Structural impact: 60 / 100
Original report

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