SIGNALDefence Tech·Jun 30, 2026, 4:07 PMSignal75Short term

Russia, Hamas, and China: Three reasons Turkey shouldn’t get the F-35

Russia, Hamas, and China: Three reasons Turkey shouldn’t get the F-35

After President Donald Trump said he would make Turkey’s leader “very happy,” analysts from the Foundation for Defense of Democracies warn in this op-ed that including Ankara in the F-35 program is still the wrong move.

Why this matters
Why now

The op-ed reflects ongoing debate and strategic considerations regarding Turkey's geopolitical alignment and its access to critical defense technology amid evolving global rivalries.

Why it’s important

This highlights the continuing tension in NATO alliances and the strategic implications of defense technology transfer in a multipolar world, influencing regional power balances and arms control.

What changes

The article reinforces the argument against Turkey's inclusion in the F-35 program, underscoring persistent concerns that could lead to further exclusion from Western defense initiatives.

Winners
  • · US defense industry
  • · F-35 partner nations
  • · Regional rivals of Turkey
Losers
  • · Turkish Air Force
  • · Turkish defense industry
  • · NATO cohesion
Second-order effects
Direct

Turkey's exclusion from the F-35 program persists, hindering its air force modernization.

Second

Ankara may further pivot towards non-Western defense suppliers, potentially acquiring alternative advanced fighter jets from Russia or China.

Third

This could lead to a deeper fracturing of NATO's interoperability and strategic alignment in critical regions like the Middle East.

Editorial confidence: 90 / 100 · Structural impact: 55 / 100
Original report

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