During a recent conference on the People’s Liberation Army, I heard the same question posed to attendees and paper writers: “How would China react to U.S. force posture change X, Y, or Z?” or “How would the Chinese military respond to U.S. strikes in certain locations?” Having participated in dozens of unclassified wargames at the RAND Corporation and elsewhere, I hear a similar refrain when playing the “red team.”This is a reasonable and legitimate question. Policymakers and war planners should understand likely Chinese responses in studying and preparing for possible contingencies between Ch
The increasing focus on potential U.S.-China military contingencies highlights the critical need for a more nuanced understanding of Chinese military decision-making, moving beyond simplistic red-team assumptions.
A deeper, more accurate comprehension of Chinese military responses is essential for policymakers and war planners to avoid miscalculation and develop effective strategies in an era of heightened great power competition.
The emphasis shifts from merely simulating Chinese reactions to actively seeking to understand the underlying drivers and blind spots in current analyses, potentially leading to more sophisticated strategic assessments.
- · U.S. intelligence community
- · China studies scholars
- · U.S. defense strategists
- · Oversimplified wargaming methodologies
- · Analysts with limited China expertise
More focused and rigorous research into Chinese military thought and doctrine will be prioritized.
This improved understanding could lead to the development of more effective deterrence strategies and crisis management protocols.
Long-term, a more sophisticated mutual understanding might temper the escalatory potential of misperceptions in future U.S.-China interactions.
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Read at War on the Rocks