SIGNALDefence Tech·Jun 11, 2026, 7:15 AMSignal75Medium term

The Maritime Action Plan Needs a Yardstick: Enter the Mahan Ratio

Source: War on the Rocks

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The Maritime Action Plan Needs a Yardstick: Enter the Mahan Ratio

Washington is littered with the corpses of grand plans to restore the Merchant Marine. The Trump administration’s Maritime Action Plan is the latest attempt, and to its credit, the most comprehensive since World War II.The plan is the government’s blueprint to resurrect America’s commercial shipping and domestic shipbuilding industry. The goal is straightforward: build enough merchant ships and train enough civilian mariners to sustain the military through war, while cutting reliance on foreign supply chains in peace. With a $1.5 billion Maritime Security Trust Fund, Maritime Prosperity Zones,

Why this matters
Why now

The US is actively seeking to reduce reliance on foreign supply chains and bolster its military logistics capabilities after decades of decline in its commercial shipping.

Why it’s important

A robust Merchant Marine and domestic shipbuilding industry are critical for national security, economic independence, and military projection during conflict, particularly in an era of U.S.-Chinese competition.

What changes

The explicit re-establishment of capacity metrics for the Merchant Marine signifies a tangible commitment to rebuild this strategic capability, moving beyond aspiration to measurable goals.

Winners
  • · US shipbuilding industry
  • · US Navy
  • · Domestic logistics firms
  • · US maritime unions
Losers
  • · Foreign commercial shipping operators (for US military contracts)
  • · Nations reliant on US reliance on their shipping capacity
  • · US companies deeply integrated into foreign supply chains
Second-order effects
Direct

Increased funding and policy focus on domestic maritime infrastructure and workforce development.

Second

Potential for increased domestic manufacturing capacity and reduced reliance on global supply chains for critical goods.

Third

Shift in geopolitical power dynamics as US strategic autonomy in logistics enables more aggressive and independent foreign policy postures.

Editorial confidence: 90 / 100 · Structural impact: 60 / 100
Original report

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