The Rain in Spain Falls Harder on Ukraine: Rethinking the Spanish Civil War Analogy
In 2023, the NATO Baltic Defense College in Tartu, Estonia devoted its entire annual conference to the Interwar Period (1919 to 1939), a theme repeated at subsequent conferences sponsored by national militaries and academic societies throughout the United States and Europe. Western scholars and foreign policy analysts, provoked by Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, seem persuaded that we are living at the close of another interwar era — one in which an egotistical European power shatters a decades-long continental truce, established and upheld by an international rules-based order, by invading
The increased academic and military focus on the Interwar Period, spurred by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, indicates a growing belief that current geopolitical dynamics mirror historical precursors to larger conflicts.
This analytical trend suggests that strategic thinkers are actively seeking historical lessons to understand and navigate the current international environment, which could influence future policy decisions and military preparedness.
The analytical framework for understanding the current geopolitical landscape is shifting towards historical analogies, particularly the Interwar Period, which implies a recognition of profound instability rather than isolated incidents.
- · Historians specializing in geopolitics
- · Defence strategists
- · Academic institutions focused on international relations
- · Those underestimating present geopolitical risks
- · Optimistic international relations theories
Increased scholarly and military attention will be directed towards the interwar period and similar historical parallels to inform contemporary strategy.
Governments and international bodies may adopt more cautious or confrontational foreign policies based on interpretations of these historical lessons.
A collective perception of an 'interwar era' could become self-fulfilling, inadvertently contributing to the conditions for broader conflict if not managed carefully.
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Read at War on the Rocks