arXiv:2606.28190v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: This study analyzes Sri Lankan migration and remittances over 32 years (1994-2025). Using a 384-month harmonized dataset, we apply exploratory data analysis, stationarity corrected time-series modeling (ADF, Johansen, VAR/VECM), and supervised learning. Results reveal remittance inflows are primarily driven by external macroeconomic variables, specifically exchange rate dynamics and global oil prices, rather than domestic indicators. Impulse response analysis confirms the asymmetric impact of currency depreciation and oil price shocks. Predictive
The publication provides a data-driven analysis covering nearly three decades, offering timely insights into the persistent economic reliance on remittances for nations like Sri Lanka.
A strategic reader should care about this study as it highlights the vulnerability of remittance-dependent economies to external macroeconomic shocks, which can inform policy-making and investment strategies.
The understanding of primary drivers for remittance inflows, shifting focus from domestic to external macroeconomic variables like exchange rates and oil prices, rather than internal economic conditions.
- · Sri Lankan policymakers
- · Econometric model developers
- · International financial institutions
- · Economic models focusing solely on domestic variables
- · Countries without robust external economic hedging strategies
Sri Lanka gaining clearer insights into managing its remittance-driven economy.
Other remittance-dependent nations adopting similar data-driven analytical approaches to understand their economic vulnerabilities.
Enhanced global financial stability due to better forecasting and risk management in remittance corridors.
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Read at arXiv cs.LG