Nature, Published online: 08 July 2026; doi:10.1038/d41586-026-02011-8 Observations from satellites and climate-model simulations show that moderate volcanic eruptions and extreme wildfires have humidified the stratosphere since 2005. The aerosol-mediated effects of these eruptions and fires explain about one-third of the observed stratospheric water-vapour trend, a contribution similar to that of surface warming.
The observation of increased stratospheric humidification since 2005 points to a sustained impact from climate events over a significant period, highlighting ongoing and accumulating environmental changes.
This research reveals a quantifiable contribution of natural disasters like volcanoes and wildfires to stratospheric water vapor, a factor previously underestimated in climate models, thus refining our understanding of Earth's climate system.
The understanding of stratospheric humidification now includes moderate volcanic eruptions and extreme wildfires as significant contributors, alongside surface warming, altering previous climate models and predictions.
- · Climate scientists
- · Atmospheric research institutions
- · Climate modeling software developers
- · Populations vulnerable to extreme weather events
- · Economic sectors reliant on stable climate patterns
Increased stratospheric water vapor could lead to more profound and faster climatic shifts than previously anticipated.
Refinement of climate intervention strategies might become necessary, potentially including geoengineering approaches targeting stratospheric composition.
The altered atmospheric composition could eventually influence global precipitation patterns, exacerbating water scarcity in some regions and flooding in others.
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