SIGNALDefence Tech·May 28, 2026, 4:00 PMSignal75Medium term

What Would Relations with Post-War Russia Look Like?

Source: War on the Rocks

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What Would Relations with Post-War Russia Look Like?

Rose Gottemoeller joined Ryan in Washington. They discussed how the West might think about relations with Russia once the war with Ukraine ends, as well as nuclear diplomacy and other critical issues. Gottemoeller was the deputy secretary general of NATO and, before that, served as a senior State Department official. She is currently at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University and has a new book out called Security Through Cooperation: Space, Nuclear Weapons, and US-Russia Relations after the Cold War (Stanford University Press).Image: Kremlin.ru via Wikime

Why this matters
Why now

The discussion about post-war Russia is emerging now as the conflict in Ukraine introduces uncertainty and a need for strategic foresight regarding future international relations.

Why it’s important

This dialogue is important for strategic readers as it shapes the long-term geopolitical landscape, particularly concerning European security, nuclear stability, and diplomatic frameworks.

What changes

The nature of relations with Russia post-conflict will be fundamentally reshaped, moving from direct confrontation to new forms of engagement, potentially altering existing alliances and diplomatic approaches.

Winners
  • · Diplomatic institutions
  • · NATO (redefined role)
  • · European security frameworks
Losers
  • · Russian hardliners
  • · Military-first foreign policy advocates
Second-order effects
Direct

The immediate effect is a proactive strategic planning for complex post-conflict scenarios with Russia.

Second

A plausible second-order consequence is the re-evaluation of security architectures in Europe and potential shifts in global power dynamics.

Third

A speculative third-order consequence could be the emergence of new, unconventional alliances or security blocs necessitated by a changed Russian state.

Editorial confidence: 85 / 100 · Structural impact: 60 / 100
Original report

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